Do the Stats Match What the People are Saying

Last week I had a young couple go out and take a survey for me. Honestly my #1 purpose was to hand out marketing materials, but I just found the results so astounding I've got to share them.

 We did this 50% at the public library and 50% at a local shopping mall. Both of which are in a very average area of the city--not the ghetto and nor the ritzy areas. Those viting these places we're coming areas ranging from slightly below avarage to maybe just more than slightly above, with only a few with high end or poverty level status. Average was the target. Our target was homeowners so we eliminated--by eye only--those under 35.

The survey was only 4 questions. I did this both to help people be more willing to participate by saying this will only take 30 seconds, and also to be able to cover a lot of ground--again, objective-distribute marketing materials. We spent 4 hours and although I was hoping to do more like 400, we did 101. It wasn't as cost effective as I'd hoped. But that's not the point I'm here to write about. It's these very interesting stats we compiled. I would be very interested to know if this same survey done in other citys would bring similar results. But anyway on to the results.

Question 1- after gaining their willingness to participate in very short 4 question survey about housing we asked--Do you own your home or do you rent?
The answer to this question sent the us to our next three based on the answer. We got 30 owners and 71 renters. I bit more skewed than I anticipated--I was thinking more like 60% renters.

Question 2 for the homeowners: How have you owned your home? Results--out of 30:
12 owned for 5 yrs or less
2 for 5-9 yrs
10 9-15 yrs
7   15 yrs or more
This tell me there are not many people either around or leaving their homes on the weekend who bought from 03--07 & that people are buying now within the past 5 years.

Question 2 for the renters: How long have you been renting your current dwelling--don't know if they're in apts or houses. Results out of 71:
1yr or less--------------32
more than 1 to 3 yrs--18
more than 3 to 5 yrs--7
more than 5 yrs--------9
This tells me that as a land lord I should not expect my tenants to living in my place for more than 1 yr and to cherish those who stay 3 as they may end up being there a very long time.

Question 3 homeowners: Do you owe more than it's worth? this brought some interesting results:
Owners of 0-5 yrs-----3 of 12 are already upside down
owners of 5-9 yrs--the 2 bubble buyers------neither one upside down
owners of 9-15 yrs---98-03--------2 of 10 upside down
owners of 15 yrs or more----------1 0f 7 upside down
This tells me some of those who have purchased witin the past 5 years have made bad buys. maybe they purchased from 08-mid 2010 while prices were still declining. Aslo that some people did not fall for the refi game during the bubble--but I'll bet those 2 who bought during it who are not upside down have very little to no equity.. and finally that about 1/5th of those pre 03 owners did fall for the refi game.

Question 4 for the homeowners: If you could sell your house TODAY, would you?  Final results:
Owners of 0-5 yrs---12 out of 30--of the 3 who are upside down only one said they would sell today if they could and overall only 2 out 12 said they would.
So basically everybody but one who bought in the past 5 years is happy, and one of them probably made such a good buy they could sell today and turn a profit.
Owners of 5-9 yrs---2 out of 30--of the 2 who bought during the bubble--and are not upside down--both would sell today IF they could.
This reafirms to me that they have little to no equity.
Owners of 9-15 yrs---10 out of 30--of the 2 who are upside down, both said they would sell today if they could, and overall 4 of ten would sell.
This tells me that about 20% of pre bubble owners fell for the refi and are now upside down and in trouble. So it's not just the bubble buyers. That fiasco has ruined a lot of lives of some probably very responsible people because every other peice of mail was telling how Now was the time to refi and get Cash...This is the most Disturbing of all the data here becouse you can get feeling for how devasting this was for a lot of good people who basicaly got suckered. I mean do you really think 20% of those owners would have refinanced for cash if their equity had only grown by a conservative 3% a year. No way. Also 1 out of the 7, 15 yr plus owners was also upside down and 4 said they sell If they could. I think those who owned longer and had more equity going in maybe didn't need to refi, we're too smart to fall for, or just were conservative enough not to.

Okay back to the Renters and some more astounding #'s

Question 3 for the renters: At any time during the past 10yrs--back to 02--did you own a home?
0-1 yr renters--out of 32--21 had owned a home within the ast 10 yrs
1+-3 yr renters--out of 18--15 had owned a home in the past 10 yrs
3+-5 yr renters--out of 7--3 had owned a home
5+ yrs renting --out of 9--2 had owned a home

These numbers present some very interesting observations. Starting on the back end renters of 3-5 yrs and 5+ yrs. Only 2 of 9 over 5 yrs and 3 of 7 3-5 yr renters had previously owned a home. 5 or 16 and 5 of 75 renters total . So this tell me that about 8% of the population are lifer renters with zero aspiration of ever owning a home.
Now look at the 0 to 3 yr renters--this tells me that 75% --64% if you add in the 3-5yr numbers--of all the renters today have owned a home within the past 10 yrs. Nearly three quarters of the 70% of average people, who are renting property today, no longer own the home they did within the past 10 yrs. Three quarters of 70% has got to be darn near 50% of the total population--Of Average Poeple Remember. That's a pretty eye opening statement.

Now the final question we asked the renters--and this really amazes me: If there was way you could Buy a house TODAY, would you.
There is no need to break this one down any further than saying of the 9 who have rented 5+ yrs Zero-Not a single one--said they would buy today if there was way they could. That just reinforces my lifer renter theory.

But this--Of the remaining 62 current renters, 39 of which had owned a home in the past 10 yrs, 6--yeah JUST 6--said they would buy a home today If there was a way they could. Just 6!!!! Have destroyed the concept of the American dream or What? Just 6!!!! I still cannot get over this number.
I was anticipating at least 50% would have said absolutely Yes with the low prices and interest rates they would be silly not to, but there is just no way we can due to our recent past struggles. JUST 6!!!!!
Amazing--AH-Mazing.

So What does this say about our recovery time from all this. To me it says hang on for a long bumpy ride because although it may not get any worse, I don't things getting better any time soon if people simply don't even want to get back out there and own a home again. This--Consumer Confidence--has got to be the most telling statistic to watch from here foreward. Because until people start thinking yes I want to buy, there's no way we're going to gobble up this inventory like everyone is saying.

I keep hearing everyone say it'll all be over in two years. Get 'em now cuz this window is closing in the next two years. I gotta say that I don't even see any glass in this window let alone seeing it closing. We need to fix it before we can start working on closing it--and it's still broken!

So there's a little peak into the status and mindset of Middle America for you. Taken directly from the mouth of Middle America. Not some number cruncher getting paid by those who have told him what results they want to see. Any statistic can be manipulated simply by where you pull your information from. This is what over 35 Average Americans are saying. Take it for what it's worth..